CALX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CALX - CALIX, INC.
$46.87
-2.12 (-4.33%)
▼
5d:
-11.16%
30d:
-10.86%
90d:
-11.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CALX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CALX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.97
36.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CALX is currently trading at $46.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.75 to $52.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (25.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CALX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.00 (+60.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CALX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.00 (+60.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$49.75 -
$52.92
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.0% below Wall St target ($75.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.2%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$49.75 -
$52.92
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.06
Resistance Level
$54.97
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.15
Wall Street Target
$75.00
(+60.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.9%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 25.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$38.30
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$34.63
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→26)
$46.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 41.2%)
$153.86
(+228%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 41.2%)
$131.86
(+181%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 41.2%)
$112.08
(+139%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 29.59 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.78
Bull Case
$63.44
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$52.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$40.19
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 25.9
Stabilization Target:
$63.37
(+35.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CALX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
50000 shares
2025-11-06
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SELL
420000 shares
2025-11-04
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SELL
50000 shares
2025-11-04
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