TWLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWLO - Twilio Inc.
$198.04
5.43 (2.82%)
▲
5d:
+0.49%
30d:
+47.71%
90d:
+79.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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2 traders called TWLO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TWLO is 7.1% above its trading range ($184.87). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TWLO is 7.1% above its trading range ($184.87). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$233.79
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $198.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.02 to $184.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (22.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $203.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TWLO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $203.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TWLO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$128.02 -
$184.87
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
TWLO is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($188.84)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.4% growth expectation is conservative given 375% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.02 -
$184.87
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.01
Resistance Level
$203.71
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.11
Wall Street Target
$188.84
(-4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
375.0%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.4% premium
PE vs Historical
30.1 vs 22.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$218.64
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$241.37
(+22%)
3-Year Target
$266.48
(+35%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$198.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 15.5%)
$305.07
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 15.5%)
$223.30
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 15.5%)
$189.81
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.45
Bull Case
$239.13
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.2
Base Case
$198.04
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$151.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TWLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erika Rottenberg
SELL
1800 shares
2026-04-21
Khozema Shipchandler
SELL
15715 shares
2026-04-06
Aidan Viggiano
SELL
9389 shares
2026-04-02
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