CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$52.64
-0.23 (-0.44%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CBSH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CBSH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.07
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $52.64, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.56 to $54.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.75 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.75 (+16.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$52.56 -
$54.16
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($61.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$52.56 -
$54.16
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.56
Resistance Level
$56.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.94
Wall Street Target
$61.75
(+16.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Profit Margin
33.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.71
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$50.57
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$49.46
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$53.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.0%)
$121.04
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 7.0%)
$64.79
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 7.0%)
$55.08
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$63.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.6%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$57.73
(+10%)
Market implied 9.6%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$35.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$56.69
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CBSH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CBSH price and gamma walls.
