CDNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CDNA - CareDx, Inc.
$18.31
0.44 (2.46%)
▲
5d:
+4.81%
30d:
-3.93%
90d:
-2.81%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
CDNA is down 5.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-05-15 with 10 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CDNA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CDNA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.80
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CDNA is currently trading at $18.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.06 to $18.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.24, while resistance sits at $18.95.
Market Sentiment: CDNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.80 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.24, while resistance sits at $18.95.
Market Sentiment: CDNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.80 (+35.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$17.06 -
$18.63
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
67th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 67th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.4% below Wall St target ($24.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.06 -
$18.63
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.87
(21.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.24
Resistance Level
$18.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.77
Wall Street Target
$24.80
(+35.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.2%
Profit Margin
-5.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 20.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.17
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$16.11
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$15.11
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$18.29
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 57.5%)
$75.79
(+314%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 57.5%)
$61.80
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 57.5%)
$52.53
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 20.3
Stabilization Target:
$22.16
(+21.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CDNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
19280 shares
2026-01-22
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
200 shares
2026-01-21
John Walter Hanna Jr
SELL
10156 shares
2026-01-15
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Advanced CDNA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CDNA price and gamma walls.
