TMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.
$450.79
4.76 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
-4.99%
30d:
-15.21%
90d:
-11.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
TMO is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $560 2026-06-18 with 577 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.7/10
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1 traders called TMO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$783.27
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$486.35
7.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMO is currently trading at $450.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $459.99 to $512.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $444.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TMO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $620.12 (+39.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $444.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TMO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $620.12 (+39.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$459.99 -
$512.31
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.0% below Wall St target ($620.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$459.99 -
$512.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$444.52
Resistance Level
$481.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.32
Wall Street Target
$620.13
(+39.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 20.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$413.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$382.46
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$354.16
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$444.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$798.62
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 9.9%)
$591.33
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$502.63
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.19
Bull Case
$748.07
(+68%)
Analyst growth 50.3%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$680.06
(+53%)
Market implied 50.3%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$307.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$560.30
(+25.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-06
Marc N Casper
SELL
5000 shares
2026-03-04
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TMO is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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Advanced TMO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMO price and gamma walls.
