CFFN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CFFN - Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.
$7.02
0.01 (0.21%)
▲
5d:
-1.34%
30d:
-3.11%
90d:
+0.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CFFN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CFFN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.28
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.00
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CFFN is currently trading at $7.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.94 to $7.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFFN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (96th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.75 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFFN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (96th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.75 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$6.94 -
$7.30
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
96th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 96th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($7.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.94 -
$7.30
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.05
(14.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.88
Resistance Level
$7.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.66
Wall Street Target
$7.75
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
34.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6.71
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$6.57
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$7.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.3%)
$23.56
(+237%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 13.3%)
$10.18
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 13.3%)
$8.65
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$9.97
(+40%)
Analyst growth 29.5%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$9.06
(+27%)
Market implied 29.5%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$4.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$7.47
(+6.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CFFN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Rick C Jackson
BUY
8000 shares
2025-10-31
Rick C Jackson
BUY
2000 shares
2025-10-31
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