CHMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMG - Chemung Financial Corp
$60.77
0.70 (1.17%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CHMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.55
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $60.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.17 to $58.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $61.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $61.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$54.17 -
$58.05
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($66.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$54.17 -
$58.05
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.28
Resistance Level
$61.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.23
Wall Street Target
$66.25
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.9%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.20
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$61.62
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$62.06
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$61.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.9%)
$184.82
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 3.9%)
$68.25
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 3.9%)
$58.01
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.14
Bull Case
$128.55
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$116.86
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$39.73
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHMG price and gamma walls.
