CIVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CIVI - Civitas Resources, Inc.

CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
$27.38
-0.38 (-1.37%) ▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 29, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026 29d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CIVI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.34
Based on -9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.15
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CIVI is currently trading at $27.38, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.31 to $27.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.8) is in line with its historical norms (5.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CIVI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.83, while resistance sits at $29.20.

Market Sentiment: CIVI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.08 (+31.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range $26.31 - $27.55
Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 31.8% below Wall St target ($36.08)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -8.2% revenue growth

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $26.31 - $27.55
Current vs Fair Value SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $25.83
Resistance Level $29.20
Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.76
Wall Street Target $36.08 (+31.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -33.9%
Profit Margin 13.5%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.5% premium
PE vs Historical 5.8 vs 5.7 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $27.52 (+1%)
2-Year Target $27.65 (+1%)
3-Year Target $27.79 (+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→6) PE COMPRESSION $27.52 (+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: -22.3%) $77.33 (+182%)
Base: (SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: -22.3%) $19.96 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 4.9, Growth: -22.3%) $16.97 (-38%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.89
Bull Case $21.21 (-23%)
Analyst growth -31.1%, PE expands to 4.5
Base Case $19.28 (-30%)
Market implied -31.1%, PE stable at 4.1
Bear Case $19.01 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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NEUTRAL

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CIVI price and gamma walls.

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