CON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CON - Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$22.18
0.58 (2.69%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CON shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.27
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.79
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CON is currently trading at $22.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.71 to $21.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $22.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.43 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $22.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CON has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.43 (+31.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$19.71 -
$21.62
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.6% below Wall St target ($28.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.71 -
$21.62
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.13
Resistance Level
$22.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.59
Wall Street Target
$28.43
(+31.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 13.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.12
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$22.65
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$23.19
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.1%)
$47.71
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 13.1%)
$31.23
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 13.1%)
$26.54
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$29.89
(+35%)
Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$27.17
(+23%)
Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$14.61
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CON price and gamma walls.
