CON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CON - Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$21.05
-0.07 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-5.9%
30d:
-12.15%
90d:
+5.09%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Get Alerted When CON Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CON shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.47
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.65
7.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CON is currently trading at $21.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.88 to $23.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 60.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CON has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.00 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$21.88 -
$23.54
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($29.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.88 -
$23.54
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.15
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.86
Resistance Level
$23.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.70
Wall Street Target
$29.00
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.1%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.36
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$19.63
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$18.92
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$21.15
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$55.57
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 14.3%)
$31.51
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 14.3%)
$26.78
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.30
Bull Case
$30.48
(+36%)
Analyst growth 27.9%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$27.71
(+24%)
Market implied 27.9%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$14.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$23.61
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CON showing a specific setup today?
Top Rated Medical Care Facilities Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Medical Care Facilities by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
THC
Tenet Healthcare Corpora… |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$261 | 62 BUY |
|
HCA
HCA Holdings Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$543 | 64 BUY |
|
EHC
Encompass Health Corp |
STRONG BUY
12 analysts |
$143 | 56 HOLD |
|
CMPS
Compass Pathways Plc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$22 | 48 HOLD |
|
ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corporati… |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$140 | 54 HOLD |
