HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$410.50
17.26 (4.39%)
▲
5d:
+6.09%
30d:
+11.75%
90d:
-13.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
19d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$661.60
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$410.80
0.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $410.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $370.71 to $394.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $416.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $500.29 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $416.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $500.29 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$370.71 -
$394.09
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($500.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$370.71 -
$394.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$369.41
Resistance Level
$416.54
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.40
Wall Street Target
$500.29
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$390.39
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$371.26
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$353.07
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$409.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$949.27
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$540.62
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 9.6%)
$459.53
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.02
Bull Case
$493.29
(+20%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$448.45
(+9%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$267.40
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$476.56
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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