CP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CP - Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
$77.24
-0.28 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
-2.52%
30d:
-13.59%
90d:
+3.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.39
Based on 9.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.85
0.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CP is currently trading at $77.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.47 to $86.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.22 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $77.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.22 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$79.47 -
$86.23
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.22)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.47 -
$86.23
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.79
Resistance Level
$82.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.15
Wall Street Target
$87.22
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.4%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 13.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.28
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$75.06
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$73.86
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$77.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.2%)
$196.26
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 14.2%)
$115.49
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 14.2%)
$98.16
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.29
Bull Case
$154.30
(+94%)
Analyst growth 79.3%, PE expands to 26.2
Base Case
$140.27
(+77%)
Market implied 79.3%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$53.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$81.34
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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