CP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CP - Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
$74.34
-1.50 (-1.98%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.60
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.75
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CP is currently trading at $74.34, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.51 to $74.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.97 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.97 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$71.51 -
$74.39
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($85.97)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$71.51 -
$74.39
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.12
Resistance Level
$75.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.59
Wall Street Target
$85.97
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.8%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.26
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$70.24
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$68.27
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$74.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.8%)
$194.14
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$109.59
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$93.15
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.38
Bull Case
$123.51
(+66%)
Analyst growth 56.4%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$112.28
(+51%)
Market implied 56.4%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$48.81
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$80.91
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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