DXCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DXCM - DexCom, Inc.
$73.04
-0.96 (-1.30%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DXCM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DXCM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.55
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.40
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DXCM is currently trading at $73.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.34 to $72.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.8) is in line with its historical norms (27.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DXCM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.54, while resistance sits at $75.97.
Market Sentiment: DXCM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.19 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DXCM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.54, while resistance sits at $75.97.
Market Sentiment: DXCM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.19 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$67.34 -
$72.43
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($85.19)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$67.34 -
$72.43
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.54
Resistance Level
$75.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.84
Wall Street Target
$85.19
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
109.9%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
29.8 vs 27.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.07
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$78.20
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$80.39
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$127.71
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 20.0%)
$95.43
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$81.11
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$111.16
(+52%)
Analyst growth 37.7%, PE expands to 44.8
Base Case
$101.05
(+38%)
Market implied 37.7%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$49.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DXCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-09-22
Kyle Malady
SELL
667 shares
2025-09-05
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