MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$83.19
3.99 (5.04%)
▲
5d:
+3.32%
30d:
+12.8%
90d:
-3.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.48
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $83.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.64 to $81.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.7) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.77 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.77 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.64 -
$81.73
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($97.77)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.64 -
$81.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.14
Resistance Level
$83.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.73
Wall Street Target
$97.77
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.11
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$79.08
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$77.11
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$83.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$173.59
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 9.6%)
$109.44
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 9.6%)
$93.03
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.73
Bull Case
$141.50
(+70%)
Analyst growth 62.4%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$128.64
(+55%)
Market implied 62.4%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$53.86
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$89.66
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
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