MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$88.00
0.79 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
+0.71%
90d:
-9.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MDT is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-05-15 with 3,656 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.77
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $88.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.14 to $89.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.56 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.56 (+24.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$86.14 -
$89.53
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.5% below Wall St target ($109.56)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.14 -
$89.53
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.92
Resistance Level
$88.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.51
Wall Street Target
$109.56
(+24.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.36
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$82.80
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$80.32
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$87.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$165.38
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$116.68
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 9.9%)
$99.18
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$162.48
(+85%)
Analyst growth 69.4%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$147.71
(+68%)
Market implied 69.4%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$59.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$96.41
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 13, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
Harry Skip Kiil
SELL
52524 shares
2026-02-19
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
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