MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$76.15
-0.82 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-11.09%
90d:
-23.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
MDT is down 4.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $97.5 2026-06-18 with 3,023 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.24
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.25
5.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $76.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.69 to $86.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.00 (+41.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.00 (+41.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$77.69 -
$86.48
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.8% below Wall St target ($108.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.69 -
$86.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.40
Resistance Level
$79.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.57
Wall Street Target
$108.00
(+41.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.20
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$66.57
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$62.25
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$76.27
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$175.44
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 9.5%)
$99.91
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 9.5%)
$84.92
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$143.30
(+88%)
Analyst growth 69.2%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$130.27
(+71%)
Market implied 69.2%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$52.34
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$93.31
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDT price and gamma walls.
