ENPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ENPH - Enphase Energy, Inc.
$36.98
-1.27 (-3.32%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
3d
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5 traders called ENPH this week
80% bullish • 1 bearish
80% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ENPH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ENPH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.47
Based on -9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.09
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ENPH is currently trading at $36.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.04 to $38.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (15.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ENPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.65, while resistance sits at $42.63. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ENPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ENPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.65, while resistance sits at $42.63. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ENPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$33.04 -
$38.18
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ENPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.04 -
$38.18
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.65
Resistance Level
$42.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.10
Wall Street Target
$39.43
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.89
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$41.61
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$43.40
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -23.6%)
$34.35
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: -23.6%)
$27.88
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: -23.6%)
$23.70
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$63.30
(+66%)
Analyst growth 44.1%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$57.55
(+50%)
Market implied 44.1%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$27.15
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ENPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Badrinarayanan Kothandar…
BUY
5000 shares
2025-08-06
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Advanced ENPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ENPH price and gamma walls.
