ESTC Intrinsic Value

Updated: Jan 31, 2026
Undervalued by 1.8%
Current Price
$65.93
Intrinsic Value (Fair Price)
$67.13
Implied Upside: +1.8%

Based on Discounted Cash Flow (Growth Decay Model)

Model Assumptions

Our Intrinsic Value is calculated using a "Growth Decay" model. We assume the company's growth will gradually slow down from its current rate to a stable terminal rate over 5 years.

Initial Growth Rate
14.3%
Discount Rate
10.0%
Terminal Rate
4.0%
Exit PE Multiple
25.0x

Adjust Your Assumptions

Customize the model to match your expectations.

Growth Rate 14.3%
0% 50%
Discount Rate (Risk) 10.0%
5% (Safe) 20% (Risky)
New Intrinsic Value
$67.13
Is ESTC a Buy?
Full Technical Analysis Profit Protection Plan
const growthRate = parseFloat(this.value) / 100; display.textContent = this.value + '%'; // Recalculate DCF (Simplified Growth Decay Model) let futureEps = baseEps; let currentGrowth = growthRate; let totalPv = 0; // 5 Year Projection with Decay for (let i = 1; i <= 5; i++) { futureEps = futureEps * (1 + currentGrowth); let pv = futureEps / Math.pow(1 + discountRate, i); totalPv += pv; // Decay growth towards 4% terminal currentGrowth = currentGrowth - ((currentGrowth - 0.04) / 5); } // Terminal Value let terminalValue = futureEps * exitPe; let pvTerminal = terminalValue / Math.pow(1 + discountRate, 5); let intrinsicValue = totalPv + pvTerminal; valueDisplay.textContent = '$' + intrinsicValue.toFixed(2); }); });