ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$49.78
1.21 (2.49%)
▲
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
+4.78%
90d:
-17.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
ESTC is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $50 2026-06-18 with 210 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESTC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESTC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.26
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.01
18.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $49.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.15 to $50.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (23.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $47.56, while resistance sits at $53.33.
Market Sentiment: ESTC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.59 (+61.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $47.56, while resistance sits at $53.33.
Market Sentiment: ESTC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.59 (+61.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$46.15 -
$50.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.8% below Wall St target ($78.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.15 -
$50.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.56
Resistance Level
$53.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.08
Wall Street Target
$78.59
(+61.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Profit Margin
-5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 23.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.71
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$39.34
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$35.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$48.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.3%)
$88.86
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$68.88
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$58.54
(+21%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 23.4
Stabilization Target:
$66.53
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carolyn Herzog
SELL
3989 shares
2026-03-09
Ashutosh Kulkarni
SELL
17756 shares
2026-03-09
Shay Banon
SELL
4283 shares
2026-03-09
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Advanced ESTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESTC price and gamma walls.
