ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$58.04
-0.41 (-0.70%)
▼
5d:
+8.28%
30d:
-14.13%
90d:
+16.29%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESTC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESTC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.39
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.23
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $58.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.28 to $63.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.4) compared to its historical average (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $68.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.26 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $68.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.26 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$56.28 -
$63.62
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($74.26)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.28 -
$63.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.12
Resistance Level
$68.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.44
Wall Street Target
$74.26
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 22.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.01
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$54.05
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$52.16
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→23)
$58.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$87.37
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.2%)
$82.01
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.4, Growth: 12.2%)
$69.71
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.43
Bull Case
$53.22
(-8%)
Analyst growth -17.2%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$48.38
(-17%)
Market implied -17.2%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$39.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.4 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$64.74
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carolyn Herzog
SELL
3989 shares
2026-03-09
Ashutosh Kulkarni
SELL
17756 shares
2026-03-09
Shay Banon
SELL
4283 shares
2026-03-09
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