EXLS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXLS - ExlService Holdings, Inc.
$39.15
0.55 (1.42%)
▲
5d:
-8.18%
30d:
-8.42%
90d:
+1.58%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXLS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXLS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.86
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.27
2.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXLS is currently trading at $39.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.89 to $43.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXLS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.14 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXLS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.14 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$40.89 -
$43.36
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.2% below Wall St target ($52.14)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.89 -
$43.36
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.24
Resistance Level
$43.19
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.85
Wall Street Target
$52.14
(+33.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.29
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.45
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$36.62
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$39.18
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$73.27
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$58.66
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 14.4%)
$49.86
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$64.84
(+66%)
Analyst growth 48.2%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$58.94
(+51%)
Market implied 48.2%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$27.05
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$41.89
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 5:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXLS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Vikas Bhalla
SELL
8000 shares
2025-09-10
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