FCBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCBC - First Community Bankshares, Inc. (VA)
$36.02
1.09 (3.12%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FCBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.75
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCBC is currently trading at $36.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.90 to $34.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCBC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: FCBC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCBC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: FCBC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.90 -
$34.80
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.90 -
$34.80
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.00
Resistance Level
$36.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.80
Wall Street Target
$38.00
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.83
(0%)
2-Year Target
$34.72
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$34.62
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$34.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.9%)
$73.95
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 3.9%)
$39.13
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 3.9%)
$33.26
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.68
Bull Case
$41.13
(+18%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$37.39
(+7%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$23.02
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$35.22
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FCBC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FCBC price and gamma walls.
