FFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIN - First Financial Bankshares Inc
$31.82
0.07 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
-2.84%
30d:
+4.81%
90d:
+3.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.84
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIN is currently trading at $31.82, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.65 to $32.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.20 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.20 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$30.65 -
$32.57
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$30.65 -
$32.57
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.21
Resistance Level
$34.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.22
Wall Street Target
$36.20
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
42.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.25
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$30.68
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$30.13
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$31.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.9%)
$55.32
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 5.9%)
$37.77
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$32.10
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.77
Bull Case
$40.68
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$36.98
(+16%)
Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$21.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$33.65
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 10:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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