FFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIN - First Financial Bankshares Inc
$29.13
0.14 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
-1.39%
30d:
-5.82%
90d:
-5.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FFIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FFIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.81
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIN is currently trading at $29.13, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.97 to $31.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $28.11, while resistance sits at $30.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $28.11, while resistance sits at $30.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.40 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$28.97 -
$31.79
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($36.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.97 -
$31.79
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.33
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.12
Resistance Level
$30.21
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.85
Wall Street Target
$36.40
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
42.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.05
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$27.01
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$26.01
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$29.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.2%)
$56.25
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 6.2%)
$34.85
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 6.2%)
$29.62
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.77
Bull Case
$37.85
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$34.41
(+17%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$19.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$32.61
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
12
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Murray Hamilton Edwards
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-13
Geoff Haney
BUY
1500 shares
2026-03-12
Johnny Trotter
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-12
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