FMAO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMAO - Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
$26.83
0.63 (2.40%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMAO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FMAO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.26
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.89
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMAO is currently trading at $26.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.68 to $26.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $27.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMAO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMAO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $27.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMAO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$24.68 -
$26.24
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($27.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.68 -
$26.24
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.21
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.76
Resistance Level
$27.54
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.06
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.4%
Profit Margin
28.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.41
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$26.62
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$26.83
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.13
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.4%)
$75.98
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 9.4%)
$34.29
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$29.14
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.33
Bull Case
$31.33
(+17%)
Analyst growth 11.7%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$28.48
(+6%)
Market implied 11.7%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$17.33
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMAO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FMAO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FMAO price and gamma walls.
