FMNB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMNB - Farmers National Banc Corp
$13.41
0.02 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
+3.07%
30d:
+2.6%
90d:
+0.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMNB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FMNB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.94
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMNB is currently trading at $13.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.50 to $13.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMNB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMNB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$12.50 -
$13.17
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.50 -
$13.17
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.38
(2.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.50
Resistance Level
$13.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.30
Wall Street Target
$14.67
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.33
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$13.25
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$13.17
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$13.35
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.0%)
$53.07
(+296%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$18.84
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$16.01
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.45
Bull Case
$17.54
(+37%)
Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$15.95
(+24%)
Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$8.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$13.59
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 7:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMNB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gina A Richardson
BUY
1231 shares
2026-03-05
Edward Muransky
BUY
40000 shares
2026-03-03
Gina A Richardson
BUY
1833 shares
2025-10-30
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