FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$47.47
-1.75 (-3.56%)
▼
5d:
-9.77%
30d:
-25.98%
90d:
-22.04%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FND shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FND shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$101.52
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.04
24.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $47.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.99 to $65.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (29.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.50 (+56.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.50 (+56.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$50.99 -
$65.15
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 56.9% below Wall St target ($74.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.99 -
$65.15
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.47
Resistance Level
$53.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.47
Wall Street Target
$74.50
(+56.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 29.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.72
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$38.45
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$34.61
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→29)
$51.72
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 17.7%)
$81.67
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 17.7%)
$77.31
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 17.7%)
$65.71
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$69.98
(+34%)
Analyst growth 27.0%, PE expands to 28.7
Base Case
$63.61
(+22%)
Market implied 27.0%, PE stable at 26.1
Bear Case
$34.07
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 29.1
Stabilization Target:
$70.94
(+49.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Bradley Paulsen
BUY
5000 shares
2025-11-03
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