FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$65.96
-2.30 (-3.37%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FND is down 12.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FND is down 12.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.01
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $65.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.32 to $74.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.2) is in line with its historical norms (31.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.50 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.50 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$63.32 -
$74.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($77.50)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$63.32 -
$74.28
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.40
Resistance Level
$77.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.18
Wall Street Target
$77.50
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.2 vs 31.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.70
(0%)
2-Year Target
$65.43
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$65.17
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→32)
$66.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.2, Growth: 11.1%)
$90.34
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$64.62
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.1%)
$54.93
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$80.66
(+22%)
Analyst growth 5.8%, PE expands to 38.1
Base Case
$73.33
(+11%)
Market implied 5.8%, PE stable at 34.7
Bear Case
$47.14
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.2 to 31.6
Stabilization Target:
$66.86
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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