FRME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRME - First Merchants Corp
$38.73
0.58 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.97%
30d:
-1.58%
90d:
+1.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FRME shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FRME shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.37
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRME is currently trading at $38.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.70 to $39.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRME has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.20 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRME is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FRME has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.20 (+19.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$36.70 -
$39.91
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.70 -
$39.91
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.13
Resistance Level
$38.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.54
Wall Street Target
$46.20
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.9%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.19
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.65
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$37.13
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$38.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$128.67
(+232%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$49.17
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$41.79
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$47.09
(+24%)
Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$42.81
(+13%)
Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$24.86
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$40.36
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Larry W Myers
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-26
Eva D Scurlock
SELL
3227 shares
2026-02-06
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