FSLR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSLR - First Solar, Inc.
$225.52
1.51 (0.67%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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3 traders called FSLR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSLR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FSLR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$489.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$303.68
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $225.52, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $234.95 to $266.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $214.00, while resistance sits at $251.36.
Market Sentiment: FSLR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $278.45 (+24.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $214.00, while resistance sits at $251.36.
Market Sentiment: FSLR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $278.45 (+24.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$234.95 -
$266.87
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FSLR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($278.45)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.9%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$234.95 -
$266.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$214.00
Resistance Level
$251.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.99
Wall Street Target
$278.45
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
79.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.7%
Profit Margin
27.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 11.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$215.72
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$207.74
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$200.05
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$224.30
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 53.4%)
$1687.72
(+653%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 53.4%)
$756.03
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 53.4%)
$642.63
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.02
Bull Case
$472.52
(+110%)
Analyst growth 72.2%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$429.56
(+91%)
Market implied 72.2%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$169.60
(-25%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$251.15
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSLR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark R Widmar
SELL
2321 shares
2025-08-15
Nathan B. Theurer
SELL
686 shares
2025-08-14
Mark R Widmar
SELL
3796 shares
2025-08-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FSLR price and gamma walls.
