GABC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GABC - German American Bancorp, Inc.
$42.07
0.52 (1.25%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GABC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GABC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.51
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GABC is currently trading at $42.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.40 to $41.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GABC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GABC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.00 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GABC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GABC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.00 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$39.40 -
$41.13
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.40 -
$41.13
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.94
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.60
Resistance Level
$42.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.58
Wall Street Target
$46.00
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Profit Margin
32.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.18
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$40.81
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$40.44
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$41.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.9%)
$104.10
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 5.9%)
$49.38
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 5.9%)
$41.97
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.89
Bull Case
$61.92
(+49%)
Analyst growth 33.8%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$56.29
(+36%)
Market implied 33.8%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$28.60
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$42.82
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GABC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jack Sheidler
BUY
31 shares
2025-10-15
Susan J Ellspermann
BUY
28 shares
2025-10-15
Zachary W Bawel
BUY
155 shares
2025-10-15
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Advanced GABC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GABC price and gamma walls.
