HBCP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HBCP - Home Bancorp, Inc.
$59.69
0.16 (0.27%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HBCP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.88
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.50
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBCP is currently trading at $59.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.19 to $60.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.00, while resistance sits at $64.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBCP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.00, while resistance sits at $64.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$58.19 -
$60.98
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.19 -
$60.98
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.74
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.00
Resistance Level
$64.17
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.87
Wall Street Target
$63.25
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.6%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.64
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$57.76
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$56.89
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$59.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.6%)
$149.50
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 3.6%)
$66.15
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$56.23
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.87
Bull Case
$65.12
(+9%)
Analyst growth 1.2%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$59.20
(-1%)
Market implied 1.2%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$39.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$62.14
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBCP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HBCP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HBCP price and gamma walls.
