HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$488.27
5.74 (1.19%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
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1 traders called HCA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$723.50
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$449.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $488.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $466.74 to $484.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $461.44, while resistance sits at $527.55.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $461.44, while resistance sits at $527.55.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$466.74 -
$484.14
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($521.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$466.74 -
$484.14
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$461.44
Resistance Level
$527.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.64
Wall Street Target
$521.62
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$468.05
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$454.01
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$440.39
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$481.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$953.77
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 9.1%)
$626.33
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$532.38
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.33
Bull Case
$639.84
(+33%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$581.67
(+21%)
Market implied 15.0%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$343.97
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$527.21
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-11
Michael S Cuffe
SELL
3836 shares
2025-09-08
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-08-19
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Advanced HCA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCA price and gamma walls.
