CON Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CON - Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
$26.20
0.33 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+11.02%
30d:
+16.76%
90d:
+9.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CON is 10.6% above its trading range ($23.68). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CON is 10.6% above its trading range ($23.68). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.29
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CON is currently trading at $26.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.81 to $23.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.86 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CON is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CON has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.86 (+17.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.81 -
$23.68
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.81 -
$23.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.21
Resistance Level
$26.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.24
Wall Street Target
$30.86
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.96
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$27.74
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$28.55
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.22
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$53.16
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$36.77
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$31.25
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$35.19
(+34%)
Analyst growth 23.6%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$31.99
(+22%)
Market implied 23.6%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$17.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
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