HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$89.30
-2.79 (-3.03%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$184.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$114.73
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $89.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.61 to $99.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$88.61 -
$99.06
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($97.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$88.61 -
$99.06
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.16
Resistance Level
$103.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.84
Wall Street Target
$97.50
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.8%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.08
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$90.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$89.08
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$91.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 554.9%)
$585.37
(+536%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 554.9%)
$310.80
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 554.9%)
$264.18
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.45 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.37
Bull Case
$111.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$92.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$70.45
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$94.89
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
