HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$29.83
0.62 (2.12%)
▲
5d:
+1.26%
30d:
-5.45%
90d:
+6.12%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
28d
Get Alerted When HG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.49
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.87
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $29.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.55 to $30.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 433.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.86 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.86 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$28.55 -
$30.83
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.55 -
$30.83
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.20
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.06
Resistance Level
$29.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.12
Wall Street Target
$32.86
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
433.3%
Profit Margin
19.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.59
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$29.35
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$29.12
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$29.97
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.4%)
$159.02
(+433%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 13.4%)
$43.55
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 13.4%)
$37.02
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.55
Bull Case
$27.58
(-5%)
Analyst growth -12.2%, PE expands to 5.7
Base Case
$25.07
(-14%)
Market implied -12.2%, PE stable at 5.1
Bear Case
$19.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$30.70
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexander James Baker
SELL
18350 shares
2025-11-14
Top Rated Insurance - Reinsurance Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Reinsurance by analyst ratings.
