HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$27.75
0.08 (0.29%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.33
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.45
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $27.75, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.55 to $27.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$26.55 -
$27.88
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.55 -
$27.88
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.05
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.05
Resistance Level
$28.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.33
Wall Street Target
$30.07
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
78.4%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.84
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$28.00
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$28.17
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$27.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.9%)
$103.15
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 1.9%)
$29.29
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 1.9%)
$24.90
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.22
Bull Case
$31.07
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.5%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$28.25
(+2%)
Market implied 3.5%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$18.55
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Keith Donald Bernhard
SELL
47000 shares
2025-09-05
Venkatanarayana Krishnam…
SELL
18988 shares
2025-08-15
Alexander James Baker
SELL
6000 shares
2025-08-13
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