HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$45.11
0.20 (0.45%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.96
14.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $45.11, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.71 to $47.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.73, while resistance sits at $48.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+15.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.73, while resistance sits at $48.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+15.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$44.71 -
$47.14
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($52.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$44.71 -
$47.14
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.61
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.73
Resistance Level
$48.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.36
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$45.72
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$46.13
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 79.0%)
$326.38
(+627%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 79.0%)
$151.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 79.0%)
$128.84
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.94
Bull Case
$54.47
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$45.11
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$34.51
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark D Wang
SELL
46364 shares
2025-08-27
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HGV is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.
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Advanced HGV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HGV price and gamma walls.
