HMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMC - Honda Motor Co., Ltd. American Depositary Share, each representing three (3) shares of Common Stock
$23.65
-0.69 (-2.83%)
▼
5d:
-4.41%
30d:
-21.58%
90d:
-20.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.33
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.48
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMC is currently trading at $23.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.82 to $29.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.64 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.64 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$24.82 -
$29.37
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($30.64)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 12.4% growth with -3.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.82 -
$29.37
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.73
Resistance Level
$25.81
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.79
Wall Street Target
$30.64
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-41.2%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 9.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.58
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$29.88
(+26%)
3-Year Target
$33.58
(+42%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.34
Bull Case
$20.97
(-15%)
Analyst growth -21.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$19.07
(-23%)
Market implied -21.0%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$16.40
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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