HNRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$15.83
-0.04 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
-13.87%
30d:
-16.46%
90d:
-16.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.14
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.83
60.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $15.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.89 to $19.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.0) compared to its historical average (28.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.33, while resistance sits at $19.72.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.88 (+76.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.33, while resistance sits at $19.72.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.88 (+76.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$16.89 -
$19.20
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.1% below Wall St target ($27.88)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.9%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.89 -
$19.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.33
Resistance Level
$19.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.02
Wall Street Target
$27.88
(+76.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 28.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.25
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.82
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→29)
$27.57
(+74%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 344.1%)
$91.47
(+478%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 344.1%)
$53.43
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 344.1%)
$45.41
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.96
Bull Case
$16.87
(+7%)
Analyst growth -2.4%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$15.34
(-2%)
Market implied -2.4%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$10.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 28.7
Stabilization Target:
$37.81
(+138.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+138.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 03, 2026 2:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles Ray Iv Wesley
BUY
20000 shares
2025-12-17
Charles Ray Iv Wesley
BUY
13000 shares
2025-11-21
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