HNRG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNRG - Hallador Energy Company
$18.49
0.30 (1.65%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HNRG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.25
Based on -15.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.88
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNRG is currently trading at $18.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.60 to $20.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.2) is in line with its historical norms (31.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1407.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $17.77, while resistance sits at $21.00.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.67 (+46.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNRG is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $17.77, while resistance sits at $21.00.
Market Sentiment: HNRG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (12th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.67 (+46.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.60 -
$20.01
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
12th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HNRG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 12th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.6% below Wall St target ($26.67)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.60 -
$20.01
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.57
(8.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.77
Resistance Level
$21.01
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.18
Wall Street Target
$26.67
(+46.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1407.7%
Profit Margin
-37.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 31.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.74
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$17.29
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$16.86
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→32)
$18.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: -35.1%)
$13.26
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -35.1%)
$10.13
(-44%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -35.1%)
$8.61
(-53%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.2 to 31.5
Stabilization Target:
$19.63
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David C Hardie
SELL
100000 shares
2025-09-30
David C Hardie
SELL
73783 shares
2025-09-29
David C Hardie
SELL
77868 shares
2025-09-26
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Advanced HNRG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HNRG price and gamma walls.
