HNVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HNVR - Hanover Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$21.59
0.19 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
-0.09%
30d:
+2.42%
90d:
-8.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HNVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HNVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.34
21.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HNVR is currently trading at $21.59, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.81 to $21.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNVR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HNVR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HNVR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HNVR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$20.81 -
$21.59
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.81 -
$21.59
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.36
Resistance Level
$22.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.17
Wall Street Target
$23.50
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-29.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.1%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.29
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$20.99
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$20.70
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$21.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 26.6%)
$106.83
(+395%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 26.6%)
$43.82
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 26.6%)
$37.25
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$45.76
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$41.60
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$14.14
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$22.61
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HNVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert Golden
SELL
700 shares
2026-02-06
Robert Golden
SELL
500 shares
2026-02-05
Robert Golden
SELL
5000 shares
2025-11-04
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