HPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HPK - HighPeak Energy, Inc. Common Stock
$4.55
-0.02 (-0.44%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 09, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HPK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HPK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HPK is currently trading at $4.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.12 to $4.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.4) is in line with its historical norms (39.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.85, while resistance sits at $4.84.
Market Sentiment: HPK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+86.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.85, while resistance sits at $4.84.
Market Sentiment: HPK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.50 (+86.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$4.12 -
$4.65
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 86.8% below Wall St target ($8.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.12 -
$4.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.85
Resistance Level
$4.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.40
Wall Street Target
$8.50
(+86.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-30.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.8%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
36.4 vs 39.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.44
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$4.33
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$4.23
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→39)
$4.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.4, Growth: -66.2%)
$3.32
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -66.2%)
$2.03
(-55%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -66.2%)
$1.73
(-62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.39
Bull Case
$2.44
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$2.22
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$3.01
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 36.4 to 39.2
Stabilization Target:
$4.90
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 8:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced HPK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HPK price and gamma walls.
