HQY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HQY - HealthEquity, Inc
$85.67
2.10 (2.51%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HQY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HQY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.92
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.03
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HQY is currently trading at $85.67, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.27 to $93.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 883.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HQY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.12 (+42.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HQY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.12 (+42.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$84.27 -
$93.99
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HQY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.5% below Wall St target ($119.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$84.27 -
$93.99
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.26
(6.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.23
Resistance Level
$88.04
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.30
Wall Street Target
$119.13
(+42.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
883.3%
Profit Margin
14.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 22.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.55
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$71.97
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$66.79
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$83.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$156.81
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 15.5%)
$128.70
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 15.5%)
$109.39
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.18
Bull Case
$182.27
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.8
Base Case
$165.70
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.0
Bear Case
$56.34
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$104.56
(+25.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HQY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
1500 shares
2025-10-20
Michael Henry Fiore
SELL
1781 shares
2025-10-07
Delano Ladd
SELL
6000 shares
2025-09-19
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Advanced HQY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HQY price and gamma walls.
