HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$206.19
3.30 (1.63%)
▲
5d:
-2.01%
30d:
-11.14%
90d:
+13.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HSY is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $190 2026-05-15 with 206 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HSY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$410.06
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$254.61
19.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $206.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $210.59 to $228.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (25.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $199.62, while resistance sits at $217.64.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $227.78 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $199.62, while resistance sits at $217.64.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $227.78 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$210.59 -
$228.91
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HSY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($227.78)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$210.59 -
$228.91
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$199.62
Resistance Level
$217.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.89
Wall Street Target
$227.78
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.8%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 25.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.61
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$181.80
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$170.71
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→25)
$205.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 17.6%)
$334.99
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 17.6%)
$329.80
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 17.6%)
$280.33
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.35
Bull Case
$462.31
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.1
Base Case
$420.28
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.3
Bear Case
$142.90
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 25.2
Stabilization Target:
$248.69
(+20.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rohit Grover
SELL
3500 shares
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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