HUM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HUM - Humana Inc.
$195.20
-1.47 (-0.75%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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19 traders called HUM this week
86% bullish • 3 bearish
86% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HUM is down 26.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HUM is down 26.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.42
Based on -12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.77
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $195.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $231.85 to $284.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $191.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $286.62 (+45.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $191.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $286.62 (+45.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$231.85 -
$284.03
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HUM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.7% below Wall St target ($286.62)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -26.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$231.85 -
$284.03
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$191.39
Resistance Level
$283.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.34
Wall Street Target
$286.63
(+45.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.3%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 20.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$181.53
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$167.55
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$154.65
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$196.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -29.6%)
$195.68
(+-1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: -29.6%)
$143.37
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: -29.6%)
$121.87
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.69
Bull Case
$240.30
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$218.45
(+12%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$131.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$250.37
(+27.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-09-25
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-22
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HUM price and gamma walls.
