HUM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HUM - Humana Inc.
$176.95
3.56 (2.05%)
▲
5d:
+1.56%
30d:
-2.55%
90d:
-31.69%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
HUM is down 5.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-04-17 with 731 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HUM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HUM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$488.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$303.22
41.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $176.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $168.12 to $181.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $175.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HUM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $175.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HUM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+19.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$168.12 -
$181.74
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($212.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$168.12 -
$181.74
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.11
Resistance Level
$175.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.57
Wall Street Target
$212.17
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.3%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 16.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.25
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$143.33
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$129.00
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→16)
$182.81
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 63.5%)
$1153.43
(+552%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 63.5%)
$597.21
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 63.5%)
$507.63
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.84
Bull Case
$290.42
(+71%)
Analyst growth 55.4%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$264.02
(+55%)
Market implied 55.4%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$115.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$250.77
(+41.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Sanjay K Shetty
BUY
810 shares
2026-02-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HUM price and gamma walls.
