IBM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IBM - International Business Machines Corporation
$306.70
-2.54 (-0.82%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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5 traders called IBM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IBM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: IBM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$410.62
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$254.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IBM is currently trading at $306.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $294.82 to $306.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.8) is in line with its historical norms (24.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IBM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $289.79, while resistance sits at $319.90.
Market Sentiment: IBM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IBM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $289.79, while resistance sits at $319.90.
Market Sentiment: IBM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$294.82 -
$306.38
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding IBM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($305.16)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$294.82 -
$306.38
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$289.79
Resistance Level
$319.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.81
Wall Street Target
$305.16
(-1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 24.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$305.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$302.47
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$299.15
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→25)
$309.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.8, Growth: 6.3%)
$371.33
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.3%)
$347.77
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$295.60
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.15
Bull Case
$376.90
(+23%)
Analyst growth 16.5%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$342.64
(+12%)
Market implied 16.5%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$200.03
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.8 to 24.6
Stabilization Target:
$319.49
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IBM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2025-09-29
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-26
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-22
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