ILMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ILMN - Illumina Inc
$126.20
-0.43 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
-2.15%
90d:
-3.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ILMN is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-04-17 with 549 OI. Call ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ILMN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 86% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ILMN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 86% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$218.94
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.94
7.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ILMN is currently trading at $126.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.06 to $128.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.7) compared to its historical average (24.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ILMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $128.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ILMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ILMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $128.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ILMN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$120.06 -
$128.43
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($136.11)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$120.06 -
$128.43
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.76
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.74
Resistance Level
$128.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.70
Wall Street Target
$136.11
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 24.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.69
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$116.95
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$112.38
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$126.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$192.52
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 13.9%)
$186.89
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$158.86
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.45
Bull Case
$146.83
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.4%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$133.48
(+8%)
Market implied 7.4%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$84.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 24.5
Stabilization Target:
$142.99
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ILMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Patricia Leckman
SELL
2370 shares
2026-02-18
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-02-10
Scott Gottlieb
BUY
200 shares
2026-02-09
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Advanced ILMN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ILMN price and gamma walls.
