ILMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ILMN - Illumina Inc
$144.81
-4.88 (-3.26%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ILMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ILMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$166.36
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.30
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ILMN is currently trading at $144.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $136.84 to $150.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.5) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ILMN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $137.00, while resistance sits at $155.53. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ILMN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $137.00, while resistance sits at $155.53. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$136.84 -
$150.48
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($135.94)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with 0.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$136.84 -
$150.48
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.00
Resistance Level
$155.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.53
Wall Street Target
$135.94
(-9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.8%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
29.5 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.73
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$157.88
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$162.15
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$149.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.5, Growth: 7.2%)
$184.34
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.2%)
$139.20
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.2%)
$118.32
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.46
Bull Case
$187.35
(+29%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$170.32
(+18%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$101.90
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ILMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ILMN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ILMN price and gamma walls.
