INSP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INSP - Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
$49.39
-0.74 (-1.48%)
▼
5d:
-5.31%
30d:
-23.44%
90d:
-48.27%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
INSP is down 6.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $70 2026-05-15 with 16 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: INSP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: INSP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.27
39.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INSP is currently trading at $49.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.19 to $63.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.6) compared to its historical average (43.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 24.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 308.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.42 (+58.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INSP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.42 (+58.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$53.19 -
$63.25
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
22th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding INSP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 22th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.4% below Wall St target ($79.42)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$53.19 -
$63.25
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.05
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.78
Resistance Level
$61.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.65
Wall Street Target
$79.42
(+58.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
308.4%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-24.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 43.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-24.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.12
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$40.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$36.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→43)
$85.06
(+70%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 33.1%)
$141.94
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 33.1%)
$118.15
(+136%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 33.1%)
$100.43
(+100%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.89
Bull Case
$32.49
(-38%)
Analyst growth -45.0%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$29.54
(-43%)
Market implied -45.0%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$36.53
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 43.4
Stabilization Target:
$116.69
(+132.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+132.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Rondoni
SELL
109 shares
2026-01-09
Shawn Mccormick
SELL
2000 shares
2025-11-28
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Advanced INSP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INSP price and gamma walls.
