KEY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KEY - KeyCorp
$21.52
-0.11 (-0.51%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KEY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KEY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.16
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.31
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $21.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.95 to $21.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.29 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.29 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$20.95 -
$21.48
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KEY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.95 -
$21.48
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.17
Resistance Level
$22.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.17
Wall Street Target
$24.29
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
131.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$20.39
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$19.80
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$21.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.5%)
$76.86
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 17.5%)
$35.05
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 17.5%)
$29.79
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$33.03
(+53%)
Analyst growth 39.9%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$30.03
(+39%)
Market implied 39.9%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$14.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$23.61
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KEY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-30
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-09-25
Andrew J Paine III
SELL
44953 shares
2025-09-09
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