KEY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KEY - KeyCorp
$20.47
0.13 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
+2.97%
30d:
-1.16%
90d:
-0.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
13d
Smart Money Accumulation
KEY is down 5.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $23 2026-04-17 with 182 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.85
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.88
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $20.47, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.26 to $20.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KEY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.36 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KEY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.36 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$19.26 -
$20.78
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.36)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.26 -
$20.78
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.16
Resistance Level
$20.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.62
Wall Street Target
$24.36
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
131.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.1%
Profit Margin
26.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.94
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$19.42
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$18.91
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$20.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 17.7%)
$71.31
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 17.7%)
$33.36
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 17.7%)
$28.36
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.52
Bull Case
$29.84
(+52%)
Analyst growth 39.7%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$27.12
(+38%)
Market implied 39.7%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$13.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$22.12
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KEY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew J Paine III
SELL
65961 shares
2026-02-06
Angela G Mago
SELL
62850 shares
2026-01-29
Trina M Evans
SELL
32695 shares
2026-01-22
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Advanced KEY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KEY price and gamma walls.
