KGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KGS - Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
$42.01
0.92 (2.24%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KGS is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: KGS is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.18
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KGS is currently trading at $42.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.02 to $39.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KGS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KGS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$36.02 -
$39.85
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
KGS is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.4% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.18)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.02 -
$39.85
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.36
Resistance Level
$42.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.54
Wall Street Target
$44.18
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
616.7%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 15.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.73
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$44.44
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$46.22
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 28.5%)
$110.83
(+170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 28.5%)
$87.19
(+112%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 28.5%)
$74.11
(+80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$89.10
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 53.0
Base Case
$81.00
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 48.2
Bear Case
$27.54
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced KGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KGS price and gamma walls.
