LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1037.15
13.01 (1.27%)
ā²
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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4 traders called LLY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ā BUY SIGNAL: LLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
ā BUY SIGNAL: LLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1620.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1006.12
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1037.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1043.05 to $1085.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.8) is in line with its historical norms (32.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 480.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1004.14, while resistance sits at $1095.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1133.93 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1004.14, while resistance sits at $1095.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1133.93 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$1043.05 -
$1085.58
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1133.93)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$1043.05 -
$1085.58
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1004.14
Resistance Level
$1095.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.77
Wall Street Target
$1133.93
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
480.4%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.8 vs 32.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1006.73
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$989.62
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$972.79
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31ā32)
$1024.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.8, Growth: 40.8%)
$2858.11
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 40.8%)
$2071.34
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 40.8%)
$1760.64
(+72%)
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Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 31.65 | Forward EPS (Implied): $32.77
Bull Case
$1252.36
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.2
Base Case
$1037.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$793.42
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.8 to 32.4
Stabilization Target:
$1078.38
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-26
John Boozman
BUY
2025-08-22
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