LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$892.20
13.96 (1.59%)
▲
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
-15.19%
90d:
-17.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1899.22
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1179.27
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $892.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $928.25 to $1032.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (28.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $885.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1209.34 (+37.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $885.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1209.34 (+37.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$928.25 -
$1032.75
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.7% below Wall St target ($1209.34)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$928.25 -
$1032.75
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$885.50
Resistance Level
$998.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.86
Wall Street Target
$1209.34
(+37.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Profit Margin
31.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 28.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$791.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$712.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$642.37
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→29)
$880.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 21.4%)
$1686.08
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$1570.31
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 21.4%)
$1334.76
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.94
Bull Case
$1831.09
(+101%)
Analyst growth 83.6%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$1664.62
(+83%)
Market implied 83.6%, PE stable at 39.5
Bear Case
$616.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 28.6
Stabilization Target:
$1204.00
(+37.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
David Taylor
SELL
2026-02-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
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