AMGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$336.23
-0.22 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
+2.17%
30d:
-3.44%
90d:
-8.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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2 traders called AMGN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$444.60
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$276.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $336.23, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $332.84 to $350.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $338.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $338.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$332.84 -
$350.23
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($353.07)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$332.84 -
$350.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$320.52
Resistance Level
$338.49
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.32
Wall Street Target
$353.07
(+5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$329.17
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$322.26
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$315.49
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$337.18
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$594.85
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 4.7%)
$386.38
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 4.7%)
$328.42
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.37
Bull Case
$604.89
(+80%)
Analyst growth 63.4%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$549.90
(+64%)
Market implied 63.4%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$228.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$359.34
(+6.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-24
David Taylor
SELL
2026-02-26
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