AMGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$374.15
12.82 (3.55%)
▲
5d:
+6.05%
30d:
+13.98%
90d:
+5.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$439.42
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$272.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $374.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $336.09 to $357.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $375.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMGN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $375.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMGN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$336.09 -
$357.50
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
Protect Your Profits
AMGN is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($354.76)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$336.09 -
$357.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$334.05
Resistance Level
$375.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.95
Wall Street Target
$354.76
(-5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$380.88
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$387.74
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$394.72
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$373.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.8%)
$588.28
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$430.68
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 4.8%)
$366.08
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.38
Bull Case
$648.56
(+73%)
Analyst growth 63.2%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$589.60
(+58%)
Market implied 63.2%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$245.70
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Maria Elvira Salazar
BUY
2026-03-24
David Taylor
SELL
2026-02-26
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