MBIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$42.89
0.38 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
-1.1%
90d:
+28.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MBIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MBIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.71
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $42.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.59 to $43.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.33 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (5th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.33 (+11.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$41.59 -
$43.33
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
5th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
87.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 5th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with -17.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$41.59 -
$43.33
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.93
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.97
Resistance Level
$43.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.39
Wall Street Target
$47.33
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.6%
Profit Margin
38.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.76
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$43.01
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$43.27
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.76
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$170.52
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$56.36
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 9.9%)
$47.91
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.78
Bull Case
$68.96
(+66%)
Analyst growth 52.2%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$62.69
(+50%)
Market implied 52.2%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$28.01
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin A Schroeter
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-10
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