MBIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$41.46
1.02 (2.52%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 02, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MBIN is 11.9% above fair value ($37.05). Market expects 5.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MBIN is 11.9% above fair value ($37.05). Market expects 5.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.90
1.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $41.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.41 to $37.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (7.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$33.41 -
$37.05
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
Protect Your Profits
MBIN is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.9% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.5% growth with -0.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 11.9% overvaluation
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.41 -
$37.05
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.18
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.27
Resistance Level
$41.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.17
Wall Street Target
$41.33
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.2%
Profit Margin
41.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 7.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.66
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$45.01
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$47.49
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.69
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 41.7%)
$314.06
(+677%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 41.7%)
$115.06
(+185%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 41.7%)
$97.80
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.34
Bull Case
$44.32
(+10%)
Analyst growth 14.1%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$40.29
(0%)
Market implied 14.1%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$24.02
(-41%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Darin L Thomas
BUY
3353 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced MBIN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MBIN price and gamma walls.
