MBWM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBWM - Mercantile Bank Corp
$51.98
0.66 (1.29%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MBWM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MBWM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.33
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBWM is currently trading at $51.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.28 to $51.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBWM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.93, while resistance sits at $54.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.60 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBWM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.93, while resistance sits at $54.60.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.60 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$48.28 -
$51.37
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MBWM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($56.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$48.28 -
$51.37
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.74
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.93
Resistance Level
$54.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.66
Wall Street Target
$56.60
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.7%
Profit Margin
37.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.86
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$50.40
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$49.95
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$51.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$154.72
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 5.4%)
$60.11
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 5.4%)
$51.09
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.47
Bull Case
$59.53
(+15%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$54.12
(+4%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$33.98
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$52.72
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBWM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MBWM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MBWM price and gamma walls.
