MDU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$21.03
0.31 (1.50%)
▲
5d:
+2.34%
30d:
+1.89%
90d:
+6.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDU is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MDU is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.91
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $21.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.27 to $21.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDU has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDU has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$20.27 -
$21.01
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.27 -
$21.01
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.62
Resistance Level
$20.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.78
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.11
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$21.20
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$21.28
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$31.49
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$27.87
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$23.69
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$24.71
(+23%)
Analyst growth 14.3%, PE expands to 23.2
Base Case
$22.46
(+12%)
Market implied 14.3%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$13.36
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles M Kelley
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-13
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