MDU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$20.51
-0.02 (-0.10%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.05
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.42
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $20.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.73 to $20.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$19.73 -
$20.53
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 8.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.73 -
$20.53
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.02
Resistance Level
$20.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.24
Wall Street Target
$21.33
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.7%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 19.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.74
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.94
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$21.15
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.3%)
$30.36
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.3%)
$27.56
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 10.3%)
$23.42
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.90
Bull Case
$25.34
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.7%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$23.04
(+12%)
Market implied 12.7%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$13.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jason L Vollmer
BUY
5000 shares
2025-09-08
Jason L Vollmer
BUY
5000 shares
2025-08-19
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