MEDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEDP - Medpace Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$582.48
-10.59 (-1.79%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MEDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$567.87
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$352.61
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEDP is currently trading at $582.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $576.78 to $611.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.3) is in line with its historical norms (35.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEDP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $578.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEDP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $578.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$576.78 -
$611.90
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($545.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$576.78 -
$611.90
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$47.66
(8.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$578.84
Resistance Level
$628.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.27
Wall Street Target
$545.75
(-6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Profit Margin
18.4%
PE vs Historical
35.3 vs 35.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$582.48
(0%)
2-Year Target
$582.48
(0%)
3-Year Target
$582.48
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→35)
PE COMPRESSION
$581.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.3, Growth: 9.2%)
$759.05
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.2%)
$479.89
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.2%)
$407.91
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (35x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.29
Bull Case
$760.06
(+31%)
Analyst growth 15.6%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$690.96
(+19%)
Market implied 15.6%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$406.58
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Susan E Burwig
SELL
10000 shares
2025-09-03
August J Troendle
SELL
36196 shares
2025-08-29
August J Troendle
SELL
620 shares
2025-08-27
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Advanced MEDP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MEDP price and gamma walls.
