MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$68.23
-0.70 (-1.02%)
▼
5d:
+0.18%
30d:
-8.84%
90d:
-22.96%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MMSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.4% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MMSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.4% annual earnings decline despite 39% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.02
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.42
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $68.23, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.37 to $76.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.00 (+49.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $102.00 (+49.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$67.37 -
$76.22
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.5% below Wall St target ($102.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$67.37 -
$76.22
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.34
Resistance Level
$71.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.55
Wall Street Target
$102.00
(+49.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
8.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 19.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.18
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$58.51
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$54.18
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$68.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$123.56
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 8.0%)
$85.98
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$73.08
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$146.76
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.5
Base Case
$133.42
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.3
Bear Case
$45.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$85.99
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Fred P Lampropoulos
SELL
10000 shares
2025-11-25
Fred P Lampropoulos
SELL
25000 shares
2025-11-21
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SELL
20000 shares
2025-11-20
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