MMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MMSI - Merit Medical Systems Inc
$81.09
0.85 (1.06%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MMSI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MMSI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.37
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.26
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MMSI is currently trading at $81.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.02 to $89.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $79.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.00 (+28.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MMSI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $79.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MMSI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.00 (+28.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$81.02 -
$89.02
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MMSI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.3% below Wall St target ($104.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$81.02 -
$89.02
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.54
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.37
Resistance Level
$84.62
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.04
Wall Street Target
$104.00
(+28.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 21.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.31
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$77.56
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$75.85
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$81.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.2%)
$114.22
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 8.2%)
$102.65
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 8.2%)
$87.25
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.95
Bull Case
$177.10
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.4
Base Case
$161.00
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$54.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.0 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$86.59
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-25
Lynne N Ward
SELL
3000 shares
2025-08-22
Lynne N Ward
SELL
2433 shares
2025-08-11
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Advanced MMSI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MMSI price and gamma walls.